Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The Big Oil Swoon Cometh? Whaddya Think?

I think we're just days - maybe even hours - away from an oil correction. The $100-per-barrel psychological ceiling loometh, and the correction cometh.

Then again, you cannot make predictions about the markets.

Onward, with the prediction.

(Or as Samuel Beckett said: I can't go on; I must go on.)

Very soon, there will be a sudden, unexpected report that U.S. oil reserves are much higher than expected. That will begin a trickle in downward oil prices. Then we'll start hearing about a mild-to-average winter being expected. And that will send oil down a bit more sharply.

But not too sharply.

Sound fantastic? Keep in mind, oil was trading at $85 about a week ago. We're in uncharted territory here. And if you expect the market to act rationally and continue on some upward trend that makes sense for any fundamental reason, you're smoking something green... not just investing in green.

The other thing is the economic slowdown in the U.S. and - soon to follow - abroad. Since we can't leverage our houses for cash anymore, we can't buy giant-screen TVs every weekend anymore. That means lower demand and lower production, lower shipping, lower transport, less oil consumed.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

What do YOU think? Is oil headed for a correction?


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