Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Bunge Up 20% in 2007?

A few weeks ago, Barron's opined that Bunge could rise 20% in 2007, reaching into the $90's... Of course that's possible... But I thought it interesting that the weekly made this conjecture based on the company's ability to expand its earnings this year. I think earnings could expand, and share prices will eventually follow.

But what should float Bunge in my view is the solidification of the commodities markets broadly, after several months of volatility, both up and down. We should see stabilization and hopefully another steady run up for commodities over the next 1-2 years...

Why do I say that? Commodities have corrected of late, entering a choppy period and shaking out the weak, or the guys who weren't quite sure why they were getting in... The herd is nervous. They think it's all over. Commodities are done. Let's cut and run into the Next Hot Thing!

Take a look and you can see where the bull market began back in 1999... and where we are today... you can see the nervousness at the end of this chart line:

I think it's normal for Wall Streeters to be running and driving prices down on their way out the door.

But keep in mind that Bunge is our longterm play on the balance of what should be an 18-year commodity bull cycle, if the last 100-plus years of market data are to be believed (and historical data is no guarantee - or as they say, past performance is not a guarantee of future results).

The Run Should Go to 2017

The cycle began in late 1999 and should continue through to about 2017.

I always remember a talk I had with Jim Rogers when he told me - from his suite in Shanghai - that every huge, breathtaking correction in commodities along the way will be nothing but another great buying opportunity. When everyone else panics and runs - like Wall Street is doing now with oil and other commodities - it'll be time to buy at firesale prices, over and over.

And we're buying Bunge.

Also, food is important, especially healthy food. Bunge is known for developing health-promoting foodstuff, along with its usual production of corn, soybeans and the like. And while we're already up in the position, the longterm trend should begin climbing steadily once this last mini-correction in commodities shakes out.

Stay fit,


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