Thursday, March 29, 2007

Sell CECO - Lock In 27%

Sell Ceco now and lock in 27%. The stock crashed through our trailing stop today and it's time to take profits.

More in a bit,


Monday, March 26, 2007

Move CECO TS to $14

CECO's trailing stop is $13.31 and the stock dipped down into the $14 range in today's trading... Let's raise our trailing stop to $14 to protect our profits here, as it looks like CECO's long, strong run could be weakening with the volatility in the markets.

The stock is just dipping down to its 50-day moving average and is still trading well above its 200-day MA as I write, so it could find some support here especially once the market absorbs this latest - but not surprising - bad news from the housing sector.

ACTION: Move CECO's TS to $14 to protect our profits

Sell Remaining Bunge options

Sell the remaining BGDP.X Bunge April $80 calls at $3.40 or better, locking in a 44.68% gain in about one month. As we intended, Bunge did break well into the money today and our options have jumped over 40% in one trading session.

We'll take this gain off the table now and close out our BG option position.

More to come,


Thursday, March 22, 2007

BG... In the Money

Well, this morning, Bunge came out of the gate fast and went in the money for about three seconds... While the markets will likely consolidate for the rest of the day, and BG might settle back a bit, I think this bodes well for the price actions viz our April $80 calls.

Remember, we have until April 21 to make money on this position. We'll keep a close eye out. Should BG keep moving in our direction, and there seems a very good chance -- BG being a nice mix of stock and commodity play in this mixed market -- we'll strike when the opportunity presents itself to take gains off the table.

That is, if we're fortunate enough to have them.

Still no word on SLUP, but I will keep you posted.


Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Portfolio Update, Post-Fed

Okay, Bernanke did what everyone's been expecting for weeks... nothing.

And good for him.

The broad markets rallied nicely, and especially our holdings. Bunge is toying with $80 levels, which would put our April options in the money and let us close out the remainder of our position with a nice gain.

Here's a look at the current portfolio. I will break down all the numbers and our track record since the inception of the portfolio soon. For now, you can see that CECO is our clear champion.

BG 12.13%
BGDP.X 63.33% (today) 4.26% (overall)
CECE 74.36%
KB 23.93%
KEP (-7.81%)
NMR 6.84%
SLUP.PK (-14.67)

More to come.


Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Solucorp Update... The Spamalot Files

Dear reader,

Solucorp has turned into a soap opera that almost defies belief... The SEC has now suspended trading of 35 companies in connection with spam emails that apparently hyped said companies based on erroneous or false information about their financials.

Solucorp was one of the companies whose traded was suspended (on March 7).

Tomorrow, the stock resumes trading once again... and we'll be watching it closely.

I must add that now that the audited financials have come out from 2004, and unaudited financials from 2005, that the basic business was not strong as of 2 years ago. This was impossible to tell when we recommended the company, which illuminates the difficulties of trading in the pink sheets...

Again, we have forever banned pink sheet stocks from Green Investments going forward... live and learn.

That's not to say we couldn't see Solucorp go on a little run after resuming trading... and if it does, we'll watch closely... and close out our position as soon as it makes sense.

I noticed our BG options rallied 37% today... so all the news isn't bad.

Steer straight,


Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Cell CTEX at $0.0035

Well, we gambled a bit and lost... Sell CTEX now at $0.0035... This will represent a 51% loss on this position as it crashed right through our sell stop yesterday afternoon and closed well below it...

Follow up is forthcoming...


Sell CTEX Today... But Hold for Now

We'll sell CTEX today... it went below .0042, which was our sell stop, yesterday... but we'll wait a bit today on the early morning rally and try to gain back a few points... Watch for the sell order on the rising market.


Tuesday, March 13, 2007

The Hot, Tedious Summer Ahead

Frankly, it's uncanny...

This morning, I issued a sell on 1/2 our remaining Bunge $80 April calls... We locked in a 15% gain by doing so, meaning so far we have closed out 75% of our position for about 14.5% gains in less than one week.

Since I issued the sell, the markets have stalled again...

The BG options are now trading at $1.65... We got in at $2.35, so if we had to close out the remaining quarter of our position today, we'd be staring at a 29% loss on that part of the position... Luckily, we have more than a month to go...

I like our chances here still, especially if the Fed does nothing with rates, or cuts rates...

Even if the rest of the position expires worthless, we'll still have netted 10.75% from our position... So worst-case scenario, we lock in double-digit gains in about a month and a half... while the broad markets are careening into the ditch.

Still, I think worst-case is... well... worst-case... It seems more likely that Bunge will see at least one attempted rally toward our strike price... and when it gets close and we see more green on the table, we'll pounce.


In other news, CECO has defied all the odds and is up almost 1% on the day, and is now trading about 70% above our entry price from a couple months ago. Our trailing stop has been raised here, meaning that no matter what happens, we'll lock in sizable gains on this position as well.

I can't help but be amazed at CECO's run so far this year... and it could get even better should the markets attempt another gasping rally before what promises to be a long, hot, tedious summer...



Sell half remaining BG calls

Sell half the remaining BG calls to lock in another 15%... This will leave us with 1/4th of our original position... and lower our risk exposure as the markets continue their volatility shake-out... and the subprime lenders reap the rewards of their reckless past. (To say nothing of their really unfortunate lendees, who are facing foreclosures... bankruptcy... psychological damage and all the rest...)

The remaining 1/4th of the position we will let ride...

So this means we'll have locked in 14% on half the position... 15% on 1/4 of the position... and we will see what happens with the rest.

Not bad for one week's work... and we could see a nice spike from here... In fact, I'm confident we will.

But again, when you can take double-digits off the table in this kind of market, with stocks falling again today... we'll do it. This is the key... finding the "efficient frontier" where your risk/reward behaviors are perfectly balanced and taylored to the market... We'll go with the flow and take profits where we can.

ACTION: Sell half the remaining BGDP.X position at $2.70 or better. We got in at $2.35... and the options are trading at $2.70 today, up 4.65% on the day... Meaning we're locking in 14.89% by selling at $2.70.

Good day,


Friday, March 9, 2007

Smile... You Just Saved 6%

We must know the lemmings well...

I hope you got filled on the sell order for 1/2 the BG calls... because in the moments after I initiated the recommendation, the calls dropped 6%.

They're still 8% above our recommended price from yesterday, but this was exactly what I was talking about...

The markets are spooky. You need to watch your butt. And when you can get in and take a quick 14% slice of the action... and get out like a ninja killing machine... you better do it right now. Because although we've seen three years of almost no volatility in the broad markets, that's all changing now, baby blue.

Good day to you,


Lock in 14% on BG Options... In Just 24 Hours

Sell half the Bunge April $80 options now to lock in a 14% gain in about 24 hours. We could be looking at significantly more upside over the next month or so...

But with the markets acting spooky still... and the lemmings in the financial media rattling their sabres of self-fulfilling prophecy... dear hearts, let's take a quick double-digit gain off the table and hold on for what could be a fun and wild ride for the next few weeks.

We bought at $2.35 or better and will be looking to sell at $2.68 or better... Work your order, see how close you can get... and pocket the proceeds.

We'll let the other half of this position run, because I do see Bunge going in the money on these calls within the next two to three weeks... particularly after the Fed announcement on March 21. (Hint: I don't see Bernanke raising rates or lowering them... and historically, that has been a tremendous thing for stocks... During times when the Fed does nothing, stocks outperform by nearly 10-1 over periods following the announcement of a rate adjustment.)

Meanwhile, I've noticed that CTEX did bounce its big, silly head off the top of its normal range and is now threatening to stop out again... Good times, eh?

Good trading,


Thursday, March 8, 2007

Buy the Bunge April Calls at $2.35

We're recommending the Bunge April $80 calls. As with all naked options, this is a wild speculation, only for the criminally insane... or those with iron testicles.

Here's the play...

BG Apr 2007 80.0000 call (BGDP.X)...

Don't pay more than $2.35 for the calls.

More to come,


CTEX Bouncing Back

Over the past two trading sessions, CTEX has rallied 32%, to 0.006, or about 14% below our entry point... That's about the area where the stock has been bumping its head, so if this mini-rally we're seeing in the markets (or this dead cat bounce, your call) continues, you never know...


Let's keep an eye on CTEX...

The company just signed a letter of intent to buy a 40-year-old stalwart of American air filtration technology... Now the company is financing the move with shares and a bond issuance, but debt is still relatively cheap and the move is called for considering the exploding growth in this market.

Whether the dilution in the shares will affect our position is unclear until we get some details of the financials. But we'll be sure to follow this one closely. It does show, however, a robustness and solvency at CTEX that should buoy shares in the long run.

Here's the complete article.

"Cemtrex Signs Letter of Intent to Purchase Griffin FiltersTue Mar 6, 10:44 AM

Email Story
IM Story
Printable View

"FARMINGDALE, N.Y., March 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cemtrex Inc. (OTC: CTEX) announced today that it has signed a letter of intent to purchase all of the outstanding shares of Griffin Filters, a company engaged in the design, manufacture and supply of air filtration and environmental control systems for industrial and commercial clients throughout the United states. The Company intends to finance this purchase with the issuance of its common stock and a long-term note. The purchase is expected to be completed within the next two months.

"Griffin Filters has been a leading supplier of dust collection systems for the past forty years with hundreds of installations nationwide," said Mr. Aron Govil, CEO and President of Cemtrex, "and this acquisition would allow us to diversify into the rapidly growing environmental control products segment."

"Cemtrex through its MIP division is engaged in manufacturing and selling the most advanced instruments for emission monitoring of particulate, mercury, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, etc. Cemtrex also provides turnkey services for carbon creation projects from abatement of greenhouse gases pursuant to the Kyoto Protocol and assists project owners in the buying and selling of carbon credits globally. The Company's products are sold to power plants, refineries, chemical plants, cement plants and other industries, including federal and state governmental agencies."

Enjoy and profit,


Wednesday, March 7, 2007

Some SRI Resources

Yes, it's that time again... I've been randomly scouring the blogosphere looking for good SRI resources and, lo, I've come across a few.

You can check them out for yourself. I don't like to dump a lot of links into this blog. We like to keep it clean and close to the bone, and focused on our portfolio... and beating the S&P 500. But sometimes, it's good to take a look at our socially responsible brethren out there, just to keep abreast of what's happening in the wider world of green.

Take a look...

1) The Dow Jones Sustainability Index... This is a great website for looking at some of the world's most powerful companies that, according to the DJ analysts, are ascribing to some form of socially responsible business plan. Some surprises include McDonald's and Alcoa! You can sort the list by country and sector. And we recently found our latest pick, Nomura, from research that began on this website.

2) Money and Values... This is one I just randomly came across, and found a terrific two-part article on SRI. But there's more to this site than just investing. It covers personal money ethics, retirement strategies, and even eating habits. A terrific blog to be sure. ... Click here to read the latest post on the "extra person" charge you sometimes endure at hotels...

3) Social Funds: This is a really fun site to poke around on, and is a bit more down our alley, because it focuses primarily on specific investment opportunities. I'm not convinced that outright mixing politics and investing is a good idea, but this site certainly provides lots of food for thought.

Enjoy and let me know if these are helpful to you!


Bunge Update

Bunge took a hit along with the rest of the stock world last week, but remains solid... While we haven't placed a trailing stop on Bunge at this time, you can see from this chart that it's still trading well within 25% of its HSR (High Since Recommended).

This chart comes from our friends at, and shows you three tiered trailing stops at various percentages, with risk ranging from low to high as you get toward the higher 21% line.

I think these guys are onto something good with their trailing stop software. It helps you track exactly where you position is relative to your stops, and sends you automatic updates when a position has hit a trailing stop.

But it's a bit more sophisticated than a straight trailing stop system, because it allows you to account for risk levels along the way. You can choose to bail depending on market conditions or even major news events - according to your various tiers of risk.

The drawback here is that the average investor will do a lot of tinkering and hemming and hawwing... But if you simply say to yourself you will sell when the bottom TS is hit, you will indeed be following a system... just one with a bit more flexibility than a hard TS at 25%, for example.

I'll keep you posted on this ingenious little system as we go forward. Meanwhile, thanks to Al Murauski and his team at for the great charts.

Good trading,


Tuesday, March 6, 2007

Add Nomura to the Portfolio

I read today that Jimmy Cramer thinks the momentum investors are behind all the whipsawwing of the markets... I don't buy it.

I think it's the lemmings.

The funny thing about the lemmings is that their membership extends to the "smart money." For all we know, the lemmings are mostly from the smart money set... hedge fund managers... investment banks... and the like. I mean, are there really enough Ma and Pa Kettles out there trading momentum portfolios to tank the entire global equity markets in one week?

I doubt it.

That being said, our usual suspects rallied hard today with the broad markets. SLUP is up 4%... Kookmin Bank is up 5%... and CECO is up almost 6% on today's trading. And to no one's surprise, our old friend CTEX rallied to almost 0.006 before falling back into its band at .0045.

It's good to know we can count on CTEX to never, ever surprise us. This company is kind of like our mentally challenged Uncle Vern... Yes he's embarrassing when he gets drinking at family reunions, but he never does anything too silly like set fire to the porch... Instead he just keeps scratching his hairy belly in the lawn chair and scaring the kids.

Disturbing but predictable, that's CTEX.

And now we're adding a new position to the portfolio that promises to do a little better. It's part of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. It's a pure play on the recovery in Japan.

The company is Nomura Holdings (NYSE: NMR).

I like Nomura because it is a pure play on Japan's recovery, and shouldn't be as affected by something important brewing in the global currency markets. I'm talking of course about the unwinding of the yen carry trade - where big investors borrow in yen, then use the yen to hold higher-yielding currencies like the Aussie dollar or the Loonie, collecting the spread between the two interest rates.

When rates rise in Japan, as they surely must, the billions of dollars in short yen positions will have to be covered. To do so, the yen carriers will have to buy yen. And that will drive the yen higher. When this happens in a major way - and there are signs it has begun already - Japanese exporters like Sony and Canon could be hampered by a strong yen.

Nomura: A Member of the DJ Sustainability Index

That's why a pure Japanese play like Nomura makes sense to me. It's not dependent on exporting, and the fundamentals are all there:
  • Annual net income of $1.95 billion...
  • Market cap of $39 billion...
  • Operating margins at 43% (compared to Merrill Lynch's at 30%)
  • Now the stock is a tad pricey compared to competitors, with a P/E of 16.75, versus the industry average 16.15.
But as far as big Japanese banks go, this is a solid institution... and of course it has the Green Investments advantage of being part of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index...

The company has a track record for doing business the right way, and sustainably. According to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index website, Nomura is among the leading sustainability companies in the world. Here's some info from the site, defining what that means:

"Leading sustainability companies display high levels of competence in addressing global and industry challenges in a variety of areas:

"Strategy: Integrating long-term economic, environmental and social aspects in their business strategies while maintaining global competitiveness and brand reputation.

"Financial: Meeting shareholders' demands for sound financial returns, long-term economic growth, open communication and transparent financial accounting.

"Customer & Product: Fostering loyalty by investing in customer relationship management and product and service innovation that focuses on technologies and systems, which use financial, natural and social resources in an efficient, effective and economic manner over the long-term.

"Governance and Stakeholder: Setting the highest standards of corporate governance and stakeholder engagement, including corporate codes of conduct and public reporting.

"Human: Managing human resources to maintain workforce capabilities and employee satisfaction through best-in-class organisational learning and knowledge management practices and remuneration and benefit programs.

"Corporate sustainability performance is an investable concept. This is crucial in driving interest and investments in sustainability to the mutual benefit of companies and investors. As this benefit circle strengthens, it will have a positive effect on the societies and economies of both the developed and developing world. "

ACTION: Add Nomura Holdings (NMR) to the Evergreen Portfolio at $20.60. We'll place a 25% trailing stop on this position, meaning we'll sell the next day if NMR closes below $15.45. But watch as the stop follows the stock price and adjust your stop accordingly.

Good trading,


Friday, March 2, 2007

SLUP Defies the Markets... Rises 2.3% Today

Another day, another slaughter...

When will it end? The answer... Never.

The market will always move down... down... up... down... up... down and up again.

This isn't an isolated event. This is part of the continuum that is the market cycle. In fact, the further down our favorite stocks go, the better buying opportunities they become.

There is nothing fundamental that is driving this downdraft.

That's why we don't worry so much about markets and market timing.

Sure, we wait for an updraft to make a new recommendation. It would be insane to buy right into the teeth of a gut-wrenching selloff like we've see this week. Nor do we panic when the going gets rough.

We use our trailing stops, and believe it or not, we haven't hit our TS's on either Cemtrex or Solucorp.

In an ulikely turn of events, today's big winner was Solucorp. Despite the S&P selling off another 1.16%, SLUP was up 2.36% today on some good news from the U.S. Patent Office.

Here's some of the story...

"Solucorp Receives U.S. Patent Office ``Notice of Allowance'' for its IFS Heavy Metal Remediating Paint Stripper TechnologyFriday

March 2, 8:15 am ET

FT. LAUDERDALE, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Solucorp Industries, Ltd. (OTC:SLUP - News), today announced that it has been issued a "Notice of Allowance" confirming Issuance for its Integrated Fixation System (IFS) Lead Out Heavy Metal Remediating Paint Stripper from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).

Lead Out is a permanent, brush on, scrape off paint stripping and metal remediating product. It uses Solucorp's EPA Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) program proven Molecular Bonding System (MBS) reagents to permanently remediate heavy metal contaminants such as lead, chromium, cadmium, or zinc that may be found in certain types of paints.

The Lead Out paint stripper is an environmentally friendly, soy-based product, which does not require costly secondary containment. Unlike competitive strippers, Lead Out remediates the lead upon contact and therefore can be applied without fear of dust particle or ground and water pollution. This, of course, not only results in non-hazardous disposal of the resulting residue but also eliminates the problem of humans inhaling the toxic lead dust or toxic lead particles, for example, falling into waterways when removing lead from bridges. It does not contain the harmful solvent Methylene Chloride that is found in most other paint strippers. The receipt of this Notice of Allowance reaffirms Solucorp's continued commitment to being the leader in the field of pollution prevention products for heavy metals contamination."

* * * *

For the complete story, go here:

Again, once we see the market stabilize, we'll consider adding our next pick. I'm looking at a few companies with tremendous, stable, cash-rich business models... and am still looking for the ideal play: a commodity company with green credentials. Perhaps an Argentine gold producer I'm looking at will fill the bill.

Till then, have a drink on me,