Tuesday, March 13, 2007

The Hot, Tedious Summer Ahead

Frankly, it's uncanny...

This morning, I issued a sell on 1/2 our remaining Bunge $80 April calls... We locked in a 15% gain by doing so, meaning so far we have closed out 75% of our position for about 14.5% gains in less than one week.

Since I issued the sell, the markets have stalled again...

The BG options are now trading at $1.65... We got in at $2.35, so if we had to close out the remaining quarter of our position today, we'd be staring at a 29% loss on that part of the position... Luckily, we have more than a month to go...

I like our chances here still, especially if the Fed does nothing with rates, or cuts rates...

Even if the rest of the position expires worthless, we'll still have netted 10.75% from our position... So worst-case scenario, we lock in double-digit gains in about a month and a half... while the broad markets are careening into the ditch.

Still, I think worst-case is... well... worst-case... It seems more likely that Bunge will see at least one attempted rally toward our strike price... and when it gets close and we see more green on the table, we'll pounce.

CECO KEEPS CHARGING AHEAD...

In other news, CECO has defied all the odds and is up almost 1% on the day, and is now trading about 70% above our entry price from a couple months ago. Our trailing stop has been raised here, meaning that no matter what happens, we'll lock in sizable gains on this position as well.

I can't help but be amazed at CECO's run so far this year... and it could get even better should the markets attempt another gasping rally before what promises to be a long, hot, tedious summer...

Cheers,

James

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