We're recommending the Bunge April $80 calls. As with all naked options, this is a wild speculation, only for the criminally insane... or those with iron testicles.
Here's the play...
BG Apr 2007 80.0000 call (BGDP.X)...
Don't pay more than $2.35 for the calls.
More to come,
James
Thursday, March 8, 2007
CTEX Bouncing Back
Over the past two trading sessions, CTEX has rallied 32%, to 0.006, or about 14% below our entry point... That's about the area where the stock has been bumping its head, so if this mini-rally we're seeing in the markets (or this dead cat bounce, your call) continues, you never know...
WE MIGHT SEE A BREAKOUT HERE...
Let's keep an eye on CTEX...
The company just signed a letter of intent to buy a 40-year-old stalwart of American air filtration technology... Now the company is financing the move with shares and a bond issuance, but debt is still relatively cheap and the move is called for considering the exploding growth in this market.
Whether the dilution in the shares will affect our position is unclear until we get some details of the financials. But we'll be sure to follow this one closely. It does show, however, a robustness and solvency at CTEX that should buoy shares in the long run.
Here's the complete article.
"Cemtrex Signs Letter of Intent to Purchase Griffin FiltersTue Mar 6, 10:44 AM
Email Story
IM Story
Printable View
"FARMINGDALE, N.Y., March 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cemtrex Inc. (OTC: CTEX) announced today that it has signed a letter of intent to purchase all of the outstanding shares of Griffin Filters, a company engaged in the design, manufacture and supply of air filtration and environmental control systems for industrial and commercial clients throughout the United states. The Company intends to finance this purchase with the issuance of its common stock and a long-term note. The purchase is expected to be completed within the next two months.
"Griffin Filters has been a leading supplier of dust collection systems for the past forty years with hundreds of installations nationwide," said Mr. Aron Govil, CEO and President of Cemtrex, "and this acquisition would allow us to diversify into the rapidly growing environmental control products segment."
"Cemtrex through its MIP division is engaged in manufacturing and selling the most advanced instruments for emission monitoring of particulate, mercury, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, etc. Cemtrex also provides turnkey services for carbon creation projects from abatement of greenhouse gases pursuant to the Kyoto Protocol and assists project owners in the buying and selling of carbon credits globally. The Company's products are sold to power plants, refineries, chemical plants, cement plants and other industries, including federal and state governmental agencies."
Enjoy and profit,
James
WE MIGHT SEE A BREAKOUT HERE...
Let's keep an eye on CTEX...
The company just signed a letter of intent to buy a 40-year-old stalwart of American air filtration technology... Now the company is financing the move with shares and a bond issuance, but debt is still relatively cheap and the move is called for considering the exploding growth in this market.
Whether the dilution in the shares will affect our position is unclear until we get some details of the financials. But we'll be sure to follow this one closely. It does show, however, a robustness and solvency at CTEX that should buoy shares in the long run.
Here's the complete article.
"Cemtrex Signs Letter of Intent to Purchase Griffin FiltersTue Mar 6, 10:44 AM
Email Story
IM Story
Printable View
"FARMINGDALE, N.Y., March 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cemtrex Inc. (OTC: CTEX) announced today that it has signed a letter of intent to purchase all of the outstanding shares of Griffin Filters, a company engaged in the design, manufacture and supply of air filtration and environmental control systems for industrial and commercial clients throughout the United states. The Company intends to finance this purchase with the issuance of its common stock and a long-term note. The purchase is expected to be completed within the next two months.
"Griffin Filters has been a leading supplier of dust collection systems for the past forty years with hundreds of installations nationwide," said Mr. Aron Govil, CEO and President of Cemtrex, "and this acquisition would allow us to diversify into the rapidly growing environmental control products segment."
"Cemtrex through its MIP division is engaged in manufacturing and selling the most advanced instruments for emission monitoring of particulate, mercury, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, etc. Cemtrex also provides turnkey services for carbon creation projects from abatement of greenhouse gases pursuant to the Kyoto Protocol and assists project owners in the buying and selling of carbon credits globally. The Company's products are sold to power plants, refineries, chemical plants, cement plants and other industries, including federal and state governmental agencies."
Enjoy and profit,
James
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Some SRI Resources
Yes, it's that time again... I've been randomly scouring the blogosphere looking for good SRI resources and, lo, I've come across a few.
You can check them out for yourself. I don't like to dump a lot of links into this blog. We like to keep it clean and close to the bone, and focused on our portfolio... and beating the S&P 500. But sometimes, it's good to take a look at our socially responsible brethren out there, just to keep abreast of what's happening in the wider world of green.
Take a look...
1) The Dow Jones Sustainability Index... This is a great website for looking at some of the world's most powerful companies that, according to the DJ analysts, are ascribing to some form of socially responsible business plan. Some surprises include McDonald's and Alcoa! You can sort the list by country and sector. And we recently found our latest pick, Nomura, from research that began on this website. http://www.sustainability-index.com/
2) Money and Values... This is one I just randomly came across, and found a terrific two-part article on SRI. But there's more to this site than just investing. It covers personal money ethics, retirement strategies, and even eating habits. A terrific blog to be sure. http://moneyandvalues.blogspot.com/ ... Click here to read the latest post on the "extra person" charge you sometimes endure at hotels... http://moneyandvalues.blogspot.com/
3) Social Funds: This is a really fun site to poke around on, and is a bit more down our alley, because it focuses primarily on specific investment opportunities. I'm not convinced that outright mixing politics and investing is a good idea, but this site certainly provides lots of food for thought. http://www.socialfunds.com/
Enjoy and let me know if these are helpful to you!
James
You can check them out for yourself. I don't like to dump a lot of links into this blog. We like to keep it clean and close to the bone, and focused on our portfolio... and beating the S&P 500. But sometimes, it's good to take a look at our socially responsible brethren out there, just to keep abreast of what's happening in the wider world of green.
Take a look...
1) The Dow Jones Sustainability Index... This is a great website for looking at some of the world's most powerful companies that, according to the DJ analysts, are ascribing to some form of socially responsible business plan. Some surprises include McDonald's and Alcoa! You can sort the list by country and sector. And we recently found our latest pick, Nomura, from research that began on this website. http://www.sustainability-index.com/
2) Money and Values... This is one I just randomly came across, and found a terrific two-part article on SRI. But there's more to this site than just investing. It covers personal money ethics, retirement strategies, and even eating habits. A terrific blog to be sure. http://moneyandvalues.blogspot.com/ ... Click here to read the latest post on the "extra person" charge you sometimes endure at hotels... http://moneyandvalues.blogspot.com/
3) Social Funds: This is a really fun site to poke around on, and is a bit more down our alley, because it focuses primarily on specific investment opportunities. I'm not convinced that outright mixing politics and investing is a good idea, but this site certainly provides lots of food for thought. http://www.socialfunds.com/
Enjoy and let me know if these are helpful to you!
James
Bunge Update
Bunge took a hit along with the rest of the stock world last week, but remains solid... While we haven't placed a trailing stop on Bunge at this time, you can see from this chart that it's still trading well within 25% of its HSR (High Since Recommended).
This chart comes from our friends at Sellatmarket.com, and shows you three tiered trailing stops at various percentages, with risk ranging from low to high as you get toward the higher 21% line.
I think these guys are onto something good with their trailing stop software. It helps you track exactly where you position is relative to your stops, and sends you automatic updates when a position has hit a trailing stop.
But it's a bit more sophisticated than a straight trailing stop system, because it allows you to account for risk levels along the way. You can choose to bail depending on market conditions or even major news events - according to your various tiers of risk.
The drawback here is that the average investor will do a lot of tinkering and hemming and hawwing... But if you simply say to yourself you will sell when the bottom TS is hit, you will indeed be following a system... just one with a bit more flexibility than a hard TS at 25%, for example.
I'll keep you posted on this ingenious little system as we go forward. Meanwhile, thanks to Al Murauski and his team at Sellatmarket.com for the great charts.
Good trading,
James
This chart comes from our friends at Sellatmarket.com, and shows you three tiered trailing stops at various percentages, with risk ranging from low to high as you get toward the higher 21% line.
I think these guys are onto something good with their trailing stop software. It helps you track exactly where you position is relative to your stops, and sends you automatic updates when a position has hit a trailing stop.
But it's a bit more sophisticated than a straight trailing stop system, because it allows you to account for risk levels along the way. You can choose to bail depending on market conditions or even major news events - according to your various tiers of risk.
The drawback here is that the average investor will do a lot of tinkering and hemming and hawwing... But if you simply say to yourself you will sell when the bottom TS is hit, you will indeed be following a system... just one with a bit more flexibility than a hard TS at 25%, for example.
I'll keep you posted on this ingenious little system as we go forward. Meanwhile, thanks to Al Murauski and his team at Sellatmarket.com for the great charts.
Good trading,
James
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Add Nomura to the Portfolio
I read today that Jimmy Cramer thinks the momentum investors are behind all the whipsawwing of the markets... I don't buy it.
I think it's the lemmings.
The funny thing about the lemmings is that their membership extends to the "smart money." For all we know, the lemmings are mostly from the smart money set... hedge fund managers... investment banks... and the like. I mean, are there really enough Ma and Pa Kettles out there trading momentum portfolios to tank the entire global equity markets in one week?
I doubt it.
That being said, our usual suspects rallied hard today with the broad markets. SLUP is up 4%... Kookmin Bank is up 5%... and CECO is up almost 6% on today's trading. And to no one's surprise, our old friend CTEX rallied to almost 0.006 before falling back into its band at .0045.
It's good to know we can count on CTEX to never, ever surprise us. This company is kind of like our mentally challenged Uncle Vern... Yes he's embarrassing when he gets drinking at family reunions, but he never does anything too silly like set fire to the porch... Instead he just keeps scratching his hairy belly in the lawn chair and scaring the kids.
Disturbing but predictable, that's CTEX.
And now we're adding a new position to the portfolio that promises to do a little better. It's part of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. It's a pure play on the recovery in Japan.
The company is Nomura Holdings (NYSE: NMR).
I like Nomura because it is a pure play on Japan's recovery, and shouldn't be as affected by something important brewing in the global currency markets. I'm talking of course about the unwinding of the yen carry trade - where big investors borrow in yen, then use the yen to hold higher-yielding currencies like the Aussie dollar or the Loonie, collecting the spread between the two interest rates.
When rates rise in Japan, as they surely must, the billions of dollars in short yen positions will have to be covered. To do so, the yen carriers will have to buy yen. And that will drive the yen higher. When this happens in a major way - and there are signs it has begun already - Japanese exporters like Sony and Canon could be hampered by a strong yen.
Nomura: A Member of the DJ Sustainability Index
That's why a pure Japanese play like Nomura makes sense to me. It's not dependent on exporting, and the fundamentals are all there:
The company has a track record for doing business the right way, and sustainably. According to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index website, Nomura is among the leading sustainability companies in the world. Here's some info from the site, defining what that means:
"Leading sustainability companies display high levels of competence in addressing global and industry challenges in a variety of areas:
"Strategy: Integrating long-term economic, environmental and social aspects in their business strategies while maintaining global competitiveness and brand reputation.
"Financial: Meeting shareholders' demands for sound financial returns, long-term economic growth, open communication and transparent financial accounting.
"Customer & Product: Fostering loyalty by investing in customer relationship management and product and service innovation that focuses on technologies and systems, which use financial, natural and social resources in an efficient, effective and economic manner over the long-term.
"Governance and Stakeholder: Setting the highest standards of corporate governance and stakeholder engagement, including corporate codes of conduct and public reporting.
"Human: Managing human resources to maintain workforce capabilities and employee satisfaction through best-in-class organisational learning and knowledge management practices and remuneration and benefit programs.
"Corporate sustainability performance is an investable concept. This is crucial in driving interest and investments in sustainability to the mutual benefit of companies and investors. As this benefit circle strengthens, it will have a positive effect on the societies and economies of both the developed and developing world. "
ACTION: Add Nomura Holdings (NMR) to the Evergreen Portfolio at $20.60. We'll place a 25% trailing stop on this position, meaning we'll sell the next day if NMR closes below $15.45. But watch as the stop follows the stock price and adjust your stop accordingly.
Good trading,
James
I think it's the lemmings.
The funny thing about the lemmings is that their membership extends to the "smart money." For all we know, the lemmings are mostly from the smart money set... hedge fund managers... investment banks... and the like. I mean, are there really enough Ma and Pa Kettles out there trading momentum portfolios to tank the entire global equity markets in one week?
I doubt it.
That being said, our usual suspects rallied hard today with the broad markets. SLUP is up 4%... Kookmin Bank is up 5%... and CECO is up almost 6% on today's trading. And to no one's surprise, our old friend CTEX rallied to almost 0.006 before falling back into its band at .0045.
It's good to know we can count on CTEX to never, ever surprise us. This company is kind of like our mentally challenged Uncle Vern... Yes he's embarrassing when he gets drinking at family reunions, but he never does anything too silly like set fire to the porch... Instead he just keeps scratching his hairy belly in the lawn chair and scaring the kids.
Disturbing but predictable, that's CTEX.
And now we're adding a new position to the portfolio that promises to do a little better. It's part of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. It's a pure play on the recovery in Japan.
The company is Nomura Holdings (NYSE: NMR).
I like Nomura because it is a pure play on Japan's recovery, and shouldn't be as affected by something important brewing in the global currency markets. I'm talking of course about the unwinding of the yen carry trade - where big investors borrow in yen, then use the yen to hold higher-yielding currencies like the Aussie dollar or the Loonie, collecting the spread between the two interest rates.
When rates rise in Japan, as they surely must, the billions of dollars in short yen positions will have to be covered. To do so, the yen carriers will have to buy yen. And that will drive the yen higher. When this happens in a major way - and there are signs it has begun already - Japanese exporters like Sony and Canon could be hampered by a strong yen.
Nomura: A Member of the DJ Sustainability Index
That's why a pure Japanese play like Nomura makes sense to me. It's not dependent on exporting, and the fundamentals are all there:
- Annual net income of $1.95 billion...
- Market cap of $39 billion...
- Operating margins at 43% (compared to Merrill Lynch's at 30%)
- Now the stock is a tad pricey compared to competitors, with a P/E of 16.75, versus the industry average 16.15.
The company has a track record for doing business the right way, and sustainably. According to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index website, Nomura is among the leading sustainability companies in the world. Here's some info from the site, defining what that means:
"Leading sustainability companies display high levels of competence in addressing global and industry challenges in a variety of areas:
"Strategy: Integrating long-term economic, environmental and social aspects in their business strategies while maintaining global competitiveness and brand reputation.
"Financial: Meeting shareholders' demands for sound financial returns, long-term economic growth, open communication and transparent financial accounting.
"Customer & Product: Fostering loyalty by investing in customer relationship management and product and service innovation that focuses on technologies and systems, which use financial, natural and social resources in an efficient, effective and economic manner over the long-term.
"Governance and Stakeholder: Setting the highest standards of corporate governance and stakeholder engagement, including corporate codes of conduct and public reporting.
"Human: Managing human resources to maintain workforce capabilities and employee satisfaction through best-in-class organisational learning and knowledge management practices and remuneration and benefit programs.
"Corporate sustainability performance is an investable concept. This is crucial in driving interest and investments in sustainability to the mutual benefit of companies and investors. As this benefit circle strengthens, it will have a positive effect on the societies and economies of both the developed and developing world. "
ACTION: Add Nomura Holdings (NMR) to the Evergreen Portfolio at $20.60. We'll place a 25% trailing stop on this position, meaning we'll sell the next day if NMR closes below $15.45. But watch as the stop follows the stock price and adjust your stop accordingly.
Good trading,
James
Friday, March 2, 2007
SLUP Defies the Markets... Rises 2.3% Today
Another day, another slaughter...
When will it end? The answer... Never.
The market will always move down... down... up... down... up... down and up again.
This isn't an isolated event. This is part of the continuum that is the market cycle. In fact, the further down our favorite stocks go, the better buying opportunities they become.
There is nothing fundamental that is driving this downdraft.
That's why we don't worry so much about markets and market timing.
Sure, we wait for an updraft to make a new recommendation. It would be insane to buy right into the teeth of a gut-wrenching selloff like we've see this week. Nor do we panic when the going gets rough.
We use our trailing stops, and believe it or not, we haven't hit our TS's on either Cemtrex or Solucorp.
In an ulikely turn of events, today's big winner was Solucorp. Despite the S&P selling off another 1.16%, SLUP was up 2.36% today on some good news from the U.S. Patent Office.
Here's some of the story...
"Solucorp Receives U.S. Patent Office ``Notice of Allowance'' for its IFS Heavy Metal Remediating Paint Stripper TechnologyFriday
March 2, 8:15 am ET
FT. LAUDERDALE, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Solucorp Industries, Ltd. (OTC:SLUP - News), today announced that it has been issued a "Notice of Allowance" confirming Issuance for its Integrated Fixation System (IFS) Lead Out Heavy Metal Remediating Paint Stripper from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).
Lead Out is a permanent, brush on, scrape off paint stripping and metal remediating product. It uses Solucorp's EPA Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) program proven Molecular Bonding System (MBS) reagents to permanently remediate heavy metal contaminants such as lead, chromium, cadmium, or zinc that may be found in certain types of paints.
The Lead Out paint stripper is an environmentally friendly, soy-based product, which does not require costly secondary containment. Unlike competitive strippers, Lead Out remediates the lead upon contact and therefore can be applied without fear of dust particle or ground and water pollution. This, of course, not only results in non-hazardous disposal of the resulting residue but also eliminates the problem of humans inhaling the toxic lead dust or toxic lead particles, for example, falling into waterways when removing lead from bridges. It does not contain the harmful solvent Methylene Chloride that is found in most other paint strippers. The receipt of this Notice of Allowance reaffirms Solucorp's continued commitment to being the leader in the field of pollution prevention products for heavy metals contamination."
* * * *
For the complete story, go here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070302/20070302005088.html?.v=1
Again, once we see the market stabilize, we'll consider adding our next pick. I'm looking at a few companies with tremendous, stable, cash-rich business models... and am still looking for the ideal play: a commodity company with green credentials. Perhaps an Argentine gold producer I'm looking at will fill the bill.
Till then, have a drink on me,
James
When will it end? The answer... Never.
The market will always move down... down... up... down... up... down and up again.
This isn't an isolated event. This is part of the continuum that is the market cycle. In fact, the further down our favorite stocks go, the better buying opportunities they become.
There is nothing fundamental that is driving this downdraft.
That's why we don't worry so much about markets and market timing.
Sure, we wait for an updraft to make a new recommendation. It would be insane to buy right into the teeth of a gut-wrenching selloff like we've see this week. Nor do we panic when the going gets rough.
We use our trailing stops, and believe it or not, we haven't hit our TS's on either Cemtrex or Solucorp.
In an ulikely turn of events, today's big winner was Solucorp. Despite the S&P selling off another 1.16%, SLUP was up 2.36% today on some good news from the U.S. Patent Office.
Here's some of the story...
"Solucorp Receives U.S. Patent Office ``Notice of Allowance'' for its IFS Heavy Metal Remediating Paint Stripper TechnologyFriday
March 2, 8:15 am ET
FT. LAUDERDALE, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Solucorp Industries, Ltd. (OTC:SLUP - News), today announced that it has been issued a "Notice of Allowance" confirming Issuance for its Integrated Fixation System (IFS) Lead Out Heavy Metal Remediating Paint Stripper from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).
Lead Out is a permanent, brush on, scrape off paint stripping and metal remediating product. It uses Solucorp's EPA Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) program proven Molecular Bonding System (MBS) reagents to permanently remediate heavy metal contaminants such as lead, chromium, cadmium, or zinc that may be found in certain types of paints.
The Lead Out paint stripper is an environmentally friendly, soy-based product, which does not require costly secondary containment. Unlike competitive strippers, Lead Out remediates the lead upon contact and therefore can be applied without fear of dust particle or ground and water pollution. This, of course, not only results in non-hazardous disposal of the resulting residue but also eliminates the problem of humans inhaling the toxic lead dust or toxic lead particles, for example, falling into waterways when removing lead from bridges. It does not contain the harmful solvent Methylene Chloride that is found in most other paint strippers. The receipt of this Notice of Allowance reaffirms Solucorp's continued commitment to being the leader in the field of pollution prevention products for heavy metals contamination."
* * * *
For the complete story, go here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070302/20070302005088.html?.v=1
Again, once we see the market stabilize, we'll consider adding our next pick. I'm looking at a few companies with tremendous, stable, cash-rich business models... and am still looking for the ideal play: a commodity company with green credentials. Perhaps an Argentine gold producer I'm looking at will fill the bill.
Till then, have a drink on me,
James
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
CTEX Now Below Trailing Stop
CTEX is trading at .0040 and is down 20% today... which is below our .0042 trailing stop. If it closes below .0042 today, we'll sell on the open tomorrow. Just check the closing price this evening, and if it's still under .0042, enter a sell at market order for the morning.
Best,
James
Best,
James
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