Monday, December 24, 2007

A Very Special Green Investments

Well, here we are... one day before Christmas. Oh yes, they call this Christmas Eve.

After today's short session, we can officially call it one year since I began writing this blog. We've had our ups (big winners on Bunge options, riding the LDK Solar explosion to 90%-plus gains in a matter of weeks)...

And we've had out downs (just about every penny or OTC stock we've added to the portfolio).

Along the way, we've stuck to our guns on the trailing stop. And sometimes, as with Starbucks, we've done it just KNOWING the stock was about to rebound. But that's emotion talking... that little twinge I feel seeing that SBUX has rallied over 3% since we sold? That's not logic - that's pure blood-boiling, bug-eyed madman talking there...

And that's the kind of nonesense that most certainly will get you creamed in the markets fast. So we sell, we take out 25% lump on the coconut... and we move on.

Now... here's the thing...

Soon we will tally up how our portfolio has done versus the S&P 500 over the past 12 months. I honestly have no idea, although I am assuming we're going to come out a bit ahead when we tally all our closed positions.

When we tally our closed and open positions, it'll get a bit more dicey, but I'm still confident we'll be okay especially with the strong rally in PZD and even Rio Tinto the last few sessions.

My point is, let's see where we are after tomorrow. Meanwhile, love and blessings be on you and yours. We're in Rochester, New York tonight - where we should be on Christmas Eve. There is snow outside our Holiday Inn. We're heading to my Sisters for some cinnamon rolls and coffee and to catch up with family long missed.

Tonight, let's not talk anymore of stocks or profits or dollars or the economy.

Let's go have some fun... with the people that count. And if you're alone - well, would you mind tallying up how we've done this year? Just kidding.

Merry merry,


Thursday, December 20, 2007


Mark it...

SBUX... Dead... Stopped out at 20.03 at 4:30 p.m. on December 19, 2007.

We're selling SBUX from the portfolio today for a 25% loss.


Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Starbucks Could Stop Out

Starbucks (SBUX) is trading at 20.23 as I write. If it closes below 20.24 today, we'll sell on the open tomorrow.

Starbucks has been starcrossed for an entire year. It has struggled with earnings and has expanded at lightning speed into China and elsewhere. Same store sales have plateaued, but all of this seems a natural part of the business cycle... like a pre-boom preparation.

Unfortunatley, we may have been very right here... but 1 year early.

Keep an eye on this position. Even if we stop out, we may re-enter at a later time.

Good day,


Monday, December 10, 2007

Rio Tinto Rising Again Today... Up 12%

Our play on Rio Tinto is getting another boost today.

According to the Associated Press and a London Telegraph report, Blackstone is preparing another rival bid for Rio. This time, it could be a Chinese sovereign wealth fund doing the bidding.

"The Sinosteel bid on Midwest may have inspired another huge mining deal. Blackstone (NYSE: BX - news - people ), the U.S. investment fund giant, is reportedly in the middle of putting together a consortium that may include a Chinese sovereign wealth fund to mount a bid for Rio Tinto (nyse: RTP - news - people ), the Daily Telegraph said Monday.

"Blackstone believes Rio Tinto's iron ore operations are worth at least $110 billion, based on the valuation Sinosteel is placing on Midwest, the British newspaper reported, without citing any source.

"Speculation that Chinese companies might bid for Rio Tinto to counter BHP Billiton (nyse: BHP - news - people )'s unwelcome takeover proposal percolated vigorously until Baosteel Group last Thursday denied any plan to bid for the Anglo-Australian mining group."

Our shares are up 2.45% today on the news. And they're up about 12.4% since we added them to the Evergreen Portfolio.

Meanwhile, consolidation in the minerals and mining sector is getting white hot.

More to come,


Friday, December 7, 2007

KEPCO Surges on China News

Our KEPCO position has surged 1.45% today.

The likely reason? The company's sudden move into China's power market... in a big way. Here's the story from AP:

* * * * *

"SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- State-run Korea Electric Power Corp. said Thursday it will take a 34 percent stake in a $1.34 billion Chinese joint venture that will develop coal mines and buy and build power plants over the next five decades.

"Kepco will "acquire 15 power plants, build nine power plants and develop nine coal mines in Shanxi, China," as part of the joint venture, the state utility said.

"Other partners in the Gemeng International Energy Co. joint venture will be China's state-run Shanxi International Electricity Group with 47 percent and Deutsche Bank with 19 percent.
Gemeng received Chinese government approval for its projects in April this year.

"The 24 power plants will have a combined capacity of 9.33 million kilowatts and the nine coal mines are expected to produce 60 million metric tons of coal a year."

* * * * *

I'll be watching this story closely. This is really good news for shareholders, long term.

But depending on the nature of these coal plants, we might exit KEPCO. If the plants are dirty and not in line with Kyoto, we'll drop this position from our portfolio.

They might be perfectly fine, clean-coal facilities for all I know. Need to research this move further.

More to come,


Tuesday, December 4, 2007

China's Baosteel Joins the Rio Tinto Bidding Party?

Remember our play on Rio Tinto (RTP)?

BHP Billiton made a formal offer to buy out the company for about $150 billion. That offer will not get it done, according to Xu Lejiang, head of China's massive steelmaker Baosteel.

According to the latest report in The Guardian newspaper:
"Baosteel, China's largest steelmaker, is considering a bid for Rio Tinto according to the president of the group.

"In an interview with a Chinese business newspaper, Xu Lejiang said his company was considering a bid for the mining giant, which has recently rejected a three-for-one share proposal from BHP Billiton, its larger rival.

"He was quoted as saying: "We are considering the matter now. The possibility of a bid is very big. The purchase plan is still at the stage of research and negotiation. We haven't signed any agreement yet."

"He added that a $200bn (£97bn) price tag would not be enough. BHP's current proposal values Rio Tinto at around $150bn."

We said in this space that BHP might have to counter with a $200 billion-plus offer. Now Baosteel is confirming that it could take MORE than that to buy out Rio. Meaning our shares could soar with the next offer, if there is one.

Good day,


Stupid Prediction Update: Crude Oil Sinks

Not long ago, we predicted that crude oil would correct sharply.

It appears the correction has begun:

Oil prices have dropped about $10 in one week on the belief that OPEC has all but decided to boost production. But the price drop itself has raised questions about whether the oil ministers will follow through during Wednesday's meeting in Abu Dhabi.

I'm guessing there's a lot more correction to come.

So would cheaper oil mean lower demand for alternative energy plays like our Green Energy Resources?

Not necessarily. As long as oil's trading above $50 a barrel, oil's still considered expensive in terms of the industry and its exploration costs.


Monday, December 3, 2007

Green Energy Resources Jumps 33%

Love those pink sheet stocks, huh?

Today our play on Green Energy Resources (GRGR.PK) is up 33%... in one session. Who needs options?

Anyway, here's what's going on...

Great Britain's energy secretary just announced the construction of the largest wood-biomass power plant in the world. Here are the details...

"Great Britain's Energy Secretary John Hutton approved the largest wood-based biomass plant in the world last week. The 350 megawatt plant will be operating 24/7, 365 days per year on wood energy power. The Secretrary noted, "The wood biomass will be supplied from the United States.

"Green Energy Resources is the only current US exporter of wood biomass energy that can meet present import and environmental standards in the United Kingdom and Europe."
Considering that GRGR recently opened a satellite office in London and is pushing aggressively into the European market for wood biomass, this could be a very good omen indeed...

I must say, however, that the company's press releases are sometimes as obtuse and hard to read as tealeaves. Nevertheless...

Good trading,


Saturday, December 1, 2007

Our Rio Tinto Shares Jump 10%... Could Could Rio Tinto See a 60% Jump?

The beautiful courtship of Rio Tinto is in full swing... And if BHP Billiton Chief Marius Kloppers has his way, this will end in the biggest merger in this history of the commodity industry.

Since we added Rio to the Green Investments portfolio last week, the stock has rallied nearly 10%.

That's an enormous short-term jump for a global resources behemoth - especially one with a $150 billion market cap.

Two things are going on here.

One, in a bid to keep shareholders from going for the offer too easily, Rio CEO Tom Albanese is flaunting his companies strong numbers, and profitability. He's also talking about increasing dividends. All of this has the effect of raising the company's perceived value on the world stage, which is good for our shares.

Two, that doens't mean a deal won't go through...

The good news is that many analysts don't see this as a bid to stop a merger at all costs. But rather, this could be the beginnings of the negotiation process. Even through Kloppers and Albanese have not begun talking officially, they have begun the mating dance in the public square.

Already Rio shares are trading at a 10% premium over the offer from BHP. That signals that investors think a sweeter offer is on the way from Kloppers and Company.

In fact, one analyst believes BHP will have to offer a 60% premium to lock up this history-making deal.

We're far, far from ANYTHING happening here, let along an offer that sweet... and that Albanese and his shareholders find acceptable.

Could BHP Offer $200-Plus Billion?

But it's possible that Rio would benefit greatly from either scenario: a merger could make the shares worth 60% more for us... That would require an all-share offer from BHP at levels exceeding $200 billion.

On the other hand, a non-merger would bring every positive aspect of the company sharply into public focus, making their perceived value higher and possibly driving shares upward that way.

Stick around. This is going to be an interesting story to watch... And possibly profitable for us green investors.

Good day,